The Dolphins are full of contradictory pasts. It starts with something as simple as the number of plays we expect them to run. Adam Gase’s Broncos had a combined 1050 run and pass attempts in 2014. In Chicago in 2015 his offense tallied 991 total. Last year in a successful Dolphins season they were at the bottom of the league with only 883. Obviously, any projection starts with volume, which isn’t exactly easy to project from this information.
The contradictions don’t stop there. Jay Ajayi broke out in a huge way, with three (!) games over 200 rushing yards in 2016. He also had eight games below 60 yards. Jarvis Landry gets compared favorably to superstar Odell Beckham in terms of receptions (289 over three seasons) but has scored just 13 touchdowns in his NFL career. DeVante Parker has an enormous amount of talent but questions about his consistency and health. So what do we expect from them in 2017? Let’s take a look:
*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they’re not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.
Breaking down the touches
While the number of plays has decreased the past three seasons in Gase’s offense the pass/run split as remained pretty similar. The Dolphins threw the ball 54 percent of the time in 2016. Gase’s offenses have thrown the ball 55 percent of the time over the past three years. At least we have one assumption we can trust.
Those passes have been distributed in a slightly different way each year, but the real outlier is 2015 when tight ends were targeted on 24 percent of passes. In both 2014 and 2016, that number was near 15 percent. I could see maybe a slight bump with the arrival of Julius…