Researchers from the Tokyo-based company Silicon Studio, led by Spanish data scientist África Periáñez, have developed a new algorithm that predicts when a user will leave a mobile game. This information is useful for game studios so that they can design strategies to maintain the player’s interest.
The video game industry has been shaken up by the emergence of smartphone games, aimed at users who are constantly connected to the Internet and change games very frequently.
África Periáñez –Head of Game Data Science at the video game company Silicon Studio, in Tokyo– and her team have developed a mathematical model that predicts when a user will leave a specific mobile game. The results of their work were presented at the International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics, held last October in Montreal (Canada).
As Periáñez told SINC, the algorithm they developed uses the so-called ‘ensemble’ method, “a model that is based on many learning algorithms instead of a single one, thereby improving the prediction accuracy by examining many more correlations and alternative models.”
“Every time we run the model, we are actually using 1,000 distinct submodels,” she adds, “each of which focuses on different variables and has different initial conditions.”
The team also used a survival analysis algorithm within each submodel. These models “are used in medical research, for example, to predict when a patient will experience an event of interest, and in biology, to know how particular cells are going to behave in the body,” she explains.
Combination of mathematical models
The Silicon Studio researchers have now, for the first time, combined the power of survival algorithms and…